The role of financial development, human capital, and economic growth on environmental sustainability: an empirical analysis of Cameroon
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Date
2020-09-23
Authors
Ndzembanteh, Aboubakary Nulambeh
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Publisher
Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi
Abstract
Bu tezde, ekonomik büyümenin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yoksullukla mücadelede bir politika aracı olarak kullanılmasının bir zorluk olduğunu, çünkü ekonomik büyüme genellikle çevreye zararlı sera gazı emisyonları ile ortaya çıktığını kaydettik. Ekonomik büyüme ve çevre kirliliği arasındaki denge bağlamsal olsa da, hem beşeri sermaye hem de finansal kalkınma, sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefi 1 (yoksulluk yok), sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefi 2 (sıfır açlık), sürdürülebilir hedef 4 (kaliteli eğitim ), sürdürülebilir hedef 6 (temiz su ve sanitasyon), sürdürülebilir hedef 8 (insana yakışır iş ve ekonomik büyüme) ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefi 13 (iklim eylemi). Bu tezin analizi dört bölüme ayrılmıştır. İlki, değişkenlerin bütünleştirici özelliklerini değerlendirir (yani geleneksel birim kökü ve yapısal kırılmalar). 1980-2016 dönemini kapsayan Kamerun zaman serisi verilerinden yararlanılarak, değişkenlerin ilk fark I (1) 'de durağan olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu arada, yapısal kırılma testi ayrıca Kamerun'un zaman serisi verilerinde, özellikle (a) Nyos Gölü felaketi ve 1985 ile 1993 arasındaki petrol krizi sırasında, (b) 1994-2004 yerel para biriminin devalüasyonu ve sonrası seçim krizi; ve (c) Kamerun da dahil olmak üzere dünyadaki birçok ülkeyi etkileyen 2008 ila 2009 mali krizi. İkinci analizde, yazar regresif dağıtım gecikmeli (ARDL) sınır testini kullanarak finansal kalkınma, beşeri sermaye, ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, enerji tüketimi ve çevre kalitesi arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisini inceliyoruz. Ayrıca, ARDL sınır testi ayrıca iki kategoriye ayrılmıştır: model bir ve model iki. Birinci modelde ARDL sınır testi, kukla değişkenler dikkate alınmadan gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ancak ikinci modelde, yapısal kırılmaların etkilerini yakalamak için yapay değişkenler tanıtıldı ve bu, sonuçların iyileştirilmesine büyük ölçüde yardımcı oldu. ARDL sınır testlerinden hesaplanan F istatistiklerinin alt ve üst sınırlardan daha yüksek olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır, bu da değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin var olduğunu göstermektedir. Özellikle, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarda (DYY) %1'lik bir artış ve finansal gelişme, karbondioksit emisyonlarını sırasıyla %0,01 ve %1,34 artırmaktadır. Bu arada, ekonomik büyüme, beşeri sermaye ve enerji tüketiminde% 1'lik bir artış, karbondioksit emisyonlarını buna bağlı olarak %1,09, %3,71 ve %0,99 oranında azaltır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve çevresel kalite arasındaki pozitif ilişki, kirlilik cenneti hipotezinin Kamerun ile ilgili olduğunu gösteriyor. Ekonomik büyüme ve çevresel kalite arasındaki negatif ilişki, bu ülkedeki çevresel Kuznets eğrisi (ECK) hipotezinin önemini gösterir. Beşeri sermayenin (eğitim) Kamerun'da çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin oluşturulmasında rol oynayan önemli bir değişken olduğu da belirtilmektedir. Üçüncü analizde, finansal gelişme, beşeri sermaye, ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, enerji tüketimi ve çevre kalitesinin nedensellik etkilerini inceliyoruz. Bu, Granger nedensellik ve Toda-Yamamoto (TY) nedensellik testleriyle test edildi. Granger nedenselliğinin sonucu, tek yönlü nedenselliğin doğrudan yabancı yatırımdan karbondioksit emisyonlarına, finansal kalkınmaya ve ekonomik büyümeye ve ekonomik büyümeden karbondioksit emisyonlarına kadar uzandığını göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, finansal gelişme ile karbondioksit emisyonları, beşeri sermaye ve karbondioksit emisyonları arasında ve kısa vadede enerji tüketimi ile karbondioksit emisyonları arasında nedensel bir etkinin olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinin devreye girmesiyle, küçük örneklem modelleriyle uyumlu olduğu için daha iyi sonuçlar elde ettik. Buna uygun olarak, Toda-Yamamoto testi tek yönlü nedenselliklerin karbondioksitten finansal gelişmeye, ekonomik büyümeye ve doğrudan yabancı yatırıma ve ekonomik büyümeden beşeri sermayeye kadar uzandığını göstermektedir. Benzer şekilde, çift yönlü nedensellik beşeri sermaye ve enerji tüketimi arasında, beşeri ve finansal gelişme arasında ve son olarak, finansal gelişme ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında ilerler. Hata düzeltme terimi (EKT) katsayısı, negatif işaretli% 5 düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulundu. Bu, değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli nedenselliğin varlığını destekler. Bu arada, hata düzeltme teriminin yaklaşık% 94,8 olan değeri, önceki yıldaki herhangi bir karbondioksit emisyon dengesizliğinin cari yılda düzeltileceğini gösterir. Dördüncü bölüm, model kararlılığı ve uygunluğunun test edilmesinden oluşur. Bu, kümülatif toplam (CUSUM), kümülatif kareler toplamı (CUSUMSQ), seri korelasyon, normallik ve heteroskedastisite testleri incelenerek incelenir. CUSUM testinin sonuçları, modelin% 5 anlamlılık düzeyinde kararlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Benzer şekilde, uygunluk testleri, modelin herhangi bir heteroskedastisite, normallik ve seri korelasyon problemlerinden arınmış olduğunu gösterir. Bu nedenle bu, bu tezde sunulan sonuçların yanlı tahminler olmadığı anlamına gelir. Her şeyden önce, özet istatistiklerden elde edilen sonuçlar ayrıca tüm değişkenlerin ortalama değerlerle gösterildiği gibi uyumlu olduğunu gösterir. Ekonomik büyümenin en yüksek ortalama değeri sergilediği, ardından beşeri sermaye ve finansal gelişmenin izlediği kaydedildi. Enerji tüketimi ve karbondioksit emisyonları negatif ortalama değerlere sahipti, bu da enerji kaynaklarının Kamerun'da tam olarak kullanılmadığını gösteriyor. Standart sapma ile ilgili olarak, bu modelden elde edilen sonuçların yanlı tahminler olmadığını gösteren önemli bir varyasyon elde edilmiştir. Bölüm yapısı açısından, bu tez beş Bölüme ayrılmıştır. Birinci bölümde, çalışmanın arka planını, problem ifadesini, çalışmanın amacını, çalışmanın kapsamını ve son olarak yenilikçi yönü sunuyoruz. İkinci bölüm, tüm CEMAC ülkelerinin ekonomisini kapsamaktadır. Bu bölüm, bu bölgesel organın ekonomik performanslarını, çeşitli CEMAC ülkelerindeki ekonomik yapıları, mali göstergeleri, sosyal göstergeleri ve son olarak çevresel değişkenleri ölçmeye yardımcı olur. İkinci bölümde teorik ve ampirik incelemeleri sunuyoruz. Bu bölüm, finansal gelişme, beşeri sermaye, ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve enerji tüketiminin çevre kalitesi üzerindeki etkilerini inceleyen geçmiş çalışmaları gözden geçirdikten sonra literatürdeki boşlukları belirlemeye yardımcı olur. Dördüncü bölüm metodolojiyi kapsar. Burada çeşitli değişkenler, model özellikleri, tahmin teknikleri açıkça belirtilmiştir. Bu arada, son bölümde, bu tezde yürütülen çeşitli testlerin deneysel sonuçlarını ve tartışmalarını oluşturduk. Son bölümde, sonuçları, önerileri, gelecekteki araştırmanın yönünü ve son olarak bu çalışmanın sınırlılıklarını sunuyoruz. Son olarak, Kamerun'da çevre kalitesinin iyileştirilmesine en çok katkıda bulunan değişken beşeri sermayesi olarak bulundu. Bu bağlamda, hükümetin, kadınlar dahil herkesi okula gitmeye teşvik ederek, beşeri sermaye gelişim düzeyini yükseltecek politikaları uygulamaya çalışması önerilmektedir. Bu arada, kirlilik cenneti hipotezinin alaka düzeyi, bulguların da gösterdiği gibi, hükümetin çevre dostu ürünleri Kamerun'a çeken politikalar geliştirmeye dikkat etmesini gerektiriyor. Ancak bu çalışmanın bulguları, iki değişken arasındaki varsayılan ilişkiye aykırı sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Bununla birlikte, enerji tüketimi ile bağımlı değişken arasında bulduğumuz ters ilişki, muhtemelen Kamerun hükümetinin kirliliğin yayılmasını azaltmak için başlattığı güçlü koruma politikalarından kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu ana dallar arasında, insanların enerjinin korunmasına yönelik duyarlılığı, daha fazla yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının kullanılması, ağaçlandırma uygulaması ve ormansızlaşmanın önlenmesi yer alıyor.
In this dissertation, we noted that the use of economic growth as a policy tool to tackle poverty in developing countries has remained a challenge, as economic growth often emerges with the emissions of greenhouse gases that are harmful to the environment. Although the trade-off between economic growth and environmental pollution is contextual, both human capital and financial development are used to achieve the sutainable development goal 1 (no poverty), sustainable development goal 2 (zero hunger), sustainable development goal 4 (quality education), sustainable development goal 6 (clean water and sanitation), sustainable development goal 8 (decent work and economic growth), and the sustainable development goal 13 (climate action). The analysis section of this dissertation is divided into four parts. The first assesses the integrating properties of the variables (i.e conventional unit root and the structural breaks). By employing the Cameroon time series data covering the period 1980 to 2016, it is found that the variables are stationary at the first difference I (1). Meanwhile, the structural break test further discloses two break points in Cameroon’s time-series data, notably during (a) Lake Nyos disaster and the petroleum crisis between 1985 to 1993 period, (b) the 1994 to 2004 local currency devaluation and the post-electoral crisis; and (c) the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis that affected many countries in the world, including Cameroon. In the second part, we examine the cointegration relationship between financial development, human capital, economic growth, foreign direct investment, energy consumption and environmental quality using the author regressive distributive lagged (ARDL) bounds test. Besides, the ARDL bounds test was further grouped into two categoryies: model one and model two. In model one, the ARDL bounds test was conducted without considering the dummy variables. But in model two, the dummy variables were introduced to capture the effects of the structural breaks and this greatly helps in improving the results. From the ARDL bounds tests, it is revealed that the calculated F-statistics are higher than the lower and the upper bound, implying that a long-run relationship exists between the variables. Specifically, a 1% increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development raise carbon dioxide emissions by 0.01% and 1.34% respectively. Meanwhile, a 1% increase in economic growth, human capital, and energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions by 1.09 %, 3.71%, and 0.99% correspondingly. The positive relationship between FDI and environmental quality pinpoints that the pollution havens hypothesis is relevant in Cameroon. Whilst the negative association among economic growth and environmental quality indicates the significance of the environmental Kuznets curve (ECK) hypothesis in this country. It is also noted that human capital (education) is an important variable that acts in generating environmental sustainability in Cameroon. In the third part, we study the causality effects of financial development, human capital, economic growth, foreign direct investment, energy consumption, and environmental quality. This was tested by engaging the Granger causality and the Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality tests. The result from the Granger causality demonstrates that unidirectional causality runs from foreign direct investment to carbon dioxide emissions, financial development, and economic growth, and from economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions. However, it was established that there exist no causal effects between financial development and carbon dioxide emissions, human capital and carbon dioxide emissions, and between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the short run. However, with the introduction of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, we obtained better results, since it is compatible with models of small samples. Correspondingly, the Toda-Yamamoto test indicates that unidirectional causalities run from carbon dioxide to financial development, economic growth, and foreign direct investment and from economic growth to human capital. Similarly, bidirectional causality runs amid human capital and energy consumption, between human and financial development, and lastly, between financial development and foreign direct investment. The coefficient of the error correction term (ECT) was found to be statistically significant at a 5% level, negative sign. This thus supports the existence of longrun causality between the variables. Meanwhile, the value of the error correction term of about 94.8%, designates that any disequilibrium of carbon dioxide emissions in the previous year will be corrected in the current year. The fourth part consists of testing the model stability and fitness. This is examined by studying the cumulative sum (CUSUM), the cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMSQ), the serial correlation, the normality, and the heteroskedasticity tests. The results of the CUSUM test indicate that the model is stable at a 5% level of significance. Likewise, the fitness tests pinpoint that the model is free from any heteroscedasticity, normality, and serial correlation problems. This, therefore, implies that the results presented in this dissertation are not biased estimates. Above all, the results from the summary statistics, further indicate that all the variables are compatible as indicated by the mean values. It was noted that economic growth exhibits the highest mean value, followed by human capital and financial development. Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions had negative mean values, signifying that energy resources are not fully utilized in Cameroon. Regarding the standard deviation, a significant variation was obtained, indicating that the results from this model are not biased estimates. In term of chapter, the dissertation covers five Chapters. In chapter one, we present the background of the study, the problem statement, the study purpose, the scope of the study, and finally, the innovative aspect. Chapter two encompasses the economy of the whole CEMAC countries. This chapter helps to gauge the economic performances of this regional body, the economic structures in various CEMAC countries, the financial indicators, the social indicators, and lastly the environmental variables. In chapter two, we present the theoretical and empirical reviews. This chapter aids to identify the literature gaps after reviewing past studies that examine the effects of financial development, human capital, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and energy consumption on environmental quality. Chapter four covers the methodology. Here, the various variables, model specification, the estimation techniques are clearly stated. Meanwhile, in the final chapter, we established the empirical results and the discussions of the various tests that are conducted in this dissertation. In the last section, we present the conclusions, recommendations, the direction of future research, and lastly the limitations of this study. Lastly, human capital was found as the variable that contributes the most in improving the quality of the environment in Cameroon. In this regard, it is therefore recommended that the government should strive to implement policies that will raise the level of human capital development by encouraging everyone to go to school, including the women. Meanwhile, the relevance of the pollution havens hypothesis as the findings demonstrate, calls for the government's attention to develop policies that attract environmentally friendly products to Cameroon. Moreover, it was hypothesized that energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are positively related. But the findings of this study demonstrates result that is contrary to the hypothesized relationship between the two variables. However, the inverse association that we found between energy consumption and the dependent variable is probably because of the strong conservation policies that the government of Cameroon has initiated to mitigate the spread of pollution. These majors include, the sensitization of people about the conservation of energy, the utilization of more renewable sources of energy, the practice of afforestation and the discouragement of deforestation.
In this dissertation, we noted that the use of economic growth as a policy tool to tackle poverty in developing countries has remained a challenge, as economic growth often emerges with the emissions of greenhouse gases that are harmful to the environment. Although the trade-off between economic growth and environmental pollution is contextual, both human capital and financial development are used to achieve the sutainable development goal 1 (no poverty), sustainable development goal 2 (zero hunger), sustainable development goal 4 (quality education), sustainable development goal 6 (clean water and sanitation), sustainable development goal 8 (decent work and economic growth), and the sustainable development goal 13 (climate action). The analysis section of this dissertation is divided into four parts. The first assesses the integrating properties of the variables (i.e conventional unit root and the structural breaks). By employing the Cameroon time series data covering the period 1980 to 2016, it is found that the variables are stationary at the first difference I (1). Meanwhile, the structural break test further discloses two break points in Cameroon’s time-series data, notably during (a) Lake Nyos disaster and the petroleum crisis between 1985 to 1993 period, (b) the 1994 to 2004 local currency devaluation and the post-electoral crisis; and (c) the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis that affected many countries in the world, including Cameroon. In the second part, we examine the cointegration relationship between financial development, human capital, economic growth, foreign direct investment, energy consumption and environmental quality using the author regressive distributive lagged (ARDL) bounds test. Besides, the ARDL bounds test was further grouped into two categoryies: model one and model two. In model one, the ARDL bounds test was conducted without considering the dummy variables. But in model two, the dummy variables were introduced to capture the effects of the structural breaks and this greatly helps in improving the results. From the ARDL bounds tests, it is revealed that the calculated F-statistics are higher than the lower and the upper bound, implying that a long-run relationship exists between the variables. Specifically, a 1% increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development raise carbon dioxide emissions by 0.01% and 1.34% respectively. Meanwhile, a 1% increase in economic growth, human capital, and energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions by 1.09 %, 3.71%, and 0.99% correspondingly. The positive relationship between FDI and environmental quality pinpoints that the pollution havens hypothesis is relevant in Cameroon. Whilst the negative association among economic growth and environmental quality indicates the significance of the environmental Kuznets curve (ECK) hypothesis in this country. It is also noted that human capital (education) is an important variable that acts in generating environmental sustainability in Cameroon. In the third part, we study the causality effects of financial development, human capital, economic growth, foreign direct investment, energy consumption, and environmental quality. This was tested by engaging the Granger causality and the Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality tests. The result from the Granger causality demonstrates that unidirectional causality runs from foreign direct investment to carbon dioxide emissions, financial development, and economic growth, and from economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions. However, it was established that there exist no causal effects between financial development and carbon dioxide emissions, human capital and carbon dioxide emissions, and between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the short run. However, with the introduction of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, we obtained better results, since it is compatible with models of small samples. Correspondingly, the Toda-Yamamoto test indicates that unidirectional causalities run from carbon dioxide to financial development, economic growth, and foreign direct investment and from economic growth to human capital. Similarly, bidirectional causality runs amid human capital and energy consumption, between human and financial development, and lastly, between financial development and foreign direct investment. The coefficient of the error correction term (ECT) was found to be statistically significant at a 5% level, negative sign. This thus supports the existence of longrun causality between the variables. Meanwhile, the value of the error correction term of about 94.8%, designates that any disequilibrium of carbon dioxide emissions in the previous year will be corrected in the current year. The fourth part consists of testing the model stability and fitness. This is examined by studying the cumulative sum (CUSUM), the cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMSQ), the serial correlation, the normality, and the heteroskedasticity tests. The results of the CUSUM test indicate that the model is stable at a 5% level of significance. Likewise, the fitness tests pinpoint that the model is free from any heteroscedasticity, normality, and serial correlation problems. This, therefore, implies that the results presented in this dissertation are not biased estimates. Above all, the results from the summary statistics, further indicate that all the variables are compatible as indicated by the mean values. It was noted that economic growth exhibits the highest mean value, followed by human capital and financial development. Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions had negative mean values, signifying that energy resources are not fully utilized in Cameroon. Regarding the standard deviation, a significant variation was obtained, indicating that the results from this model are not biased estimates. In term of chapter, the dissertation covers five Chapters. In chapter one, we present the background of the study, the problem statement, the study purpose, the scope of the study, and finally, the innovative aspect. Chapter two encompasses the economy of the whole CEMAC countries. This chapter helps to gauge the economic performances of this regional body, the economic structures in various CEMAC countries, the financial indicators, the social indicators, and lastly the environmental variables. In chapter two, we present the theoretical and empirical reviews. This chapter aids to identify the literature gaps after reviewing past studies that examine the effects of financial development, human capital, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and energy consumption on environmental quality. Chapter four covers the methodology. Here, the various variables, model specification, the estimation techniques are clearly stated. Meanwhile, in the final chapter, we established the empirical results and the discussions of the various tests that are conducted in this dissertation. In the last section, we present the conclusions, recommendations, the direction of future research, and lastly the limitations of this study. Lastly, human capital was found as the variable that contributes the most in improving the quality of the environment in Cameroon. In this regard, it is therefore recommended that the government should strive to implement policies that will raise the level of human capital development by encouraging everyone to go to school, including the women. Meanwhile, the relevance of the pollution havens hypothesis as the findings demonstrate, calls for the government's attention to develop policies that attract environmentally friendly products to Cameroon. Moreover, it was hypothesized that energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are positively related. But the findings of this study demonstrates result that is contrary to the hypothesized relationship between the two variables. However, the inverse association that we found between energy consumption and the dependent variable is probably because of the strong conservation policies that the government of Cameroon has initiated to mitigate the spread of pollution. These majors include, the sensitization of people about the conservation of energy, the utilization of more renewable sources of energy, the practice of afforestation and the discouragement of deforestation.
Description
Keywords
Kamerun, Çevre kalitesi, Beşeri sermaye, Ekonomik büyüme, Finansal gelişme, Cameroon, Environmental quality, Human capital, Economic growth, Financial development
Citation
Ndzembanteh, A. N. (2020). The role of financial development, human capital, and economic growth on environmental sustainability: an empirical analysis of Cameroon. Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.