Yeni sanayileşen ülkelerde kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel dinamik görünüşte ilişkisiz regresyon
Date
2024-02-26
Authors
Özkan, Ecem
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi
Abstract
Panel veriler hem zaman serisi gözlemlerini hem de bireyler grubundaki kesit gözlemlerini içeren bir veri kümesini ifade eder. Zaman boyutu ve yatay kesit boyutunun birleşimi olarak ifade edilen bu veri kümesi ile analiz gerçekleştirilirken gözardı edilmemesi gereken, panelin doğası gereği sahip olabileceği temel özellikler vardır. Bunlar analiz gerçekleştirilirken kullanılacak tekniklere yön veren kritik özelliklerdir. Bu çalışmada yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında, eş bütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu heterojen paneller için Dinamik Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyon (DSUR) tekniği kullanılarak, 1988-2022 dönemi için yeni sanayileşen ülkelerde kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin Keynes ve Wagner teorilerine dayandırıldığı bir panel veri analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ekonomi literatüründe, kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi anlamaya çalışan çok sayıda çalışma yer almaktadır. Literatür bu iki değişken arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünün farklı olduğunu öne süren Keynes ve Wagner teorileri konusunda yoğunlaşmıştır. Yeni sanayileşen ülkelerde de kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi ve bu ilişkinin hangi perspektifte değerlendirileceği, ülkelerin ekonomik kalkınma süreçlerini anlamada ve etkili politika yapımında kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışmada da kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki ilişki yeni sanayileşen ülkeler özelinde incelenmiştir. Çalışmada yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında heterojen paneller için etkin tahmincilerin elde edilmesini sağlayan DSUR tekniği kullanılmıştır. Literatürde, DSUR tekniğinin, diğer tekniklerden daha verimli olduğu kabul edilmektedir. DSUR tekniği kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen analizler, yeni sanayileşen ülkelerde Wagner Kanunu’nun geçerli olduğunu ve bu ülkelerde ekonomik büyümenin kamu harcamaları üzerinde artan bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.
Panel data refers to data set that includes both time series observations and cross-sectional observations on a group of individuals. There are basic features that the panel may have by nature, which should not be ignored when performing analysis with thisdata set, which is expressed as a combination of time dimension and cross-sectionaldimension. These are critical features that guide the techniques to be used when performing analysis. In this study, a panel data analysis was carried out in which the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth in newly industrialized countries was based on Keynes and Wagner theories for the period 1988-2022, using the Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression (DSUR) technique for heterogeneous panels with cointegration relationships under cross-sectional dependence. There are many studies in the economic literature which try to understand the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth. The literature concentrates on Keynes and Wagner theories, which suggest that the direction of causality between these two variables are different. In newly industrialized countries, the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth and the perspective from which this relationship will be evaluated plays a critical role in understanding the economic development processes of the countries and in effective policy making. In this dissertation, the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth variables was examined specifically for newly industrialized countries. In the study, the DSUR technique, which allows obtaining effective estimators for heterogeneous panels under cross-section dependence, was used. In the literature, the DSUR technique is accepted to be more efficient than other techniques. Analyzes performed using the DSUR technique show that Wagner’s Law is valid in newly industrialized countries and that economic growth has an increasing effect on government expenditures in these economies.
Panel data refers to data set that includes both time series observations and cross-sectional observations on a group of individuals. There are basic features that the panel may have by nature, which should not be ignored when performing analysis with thisdata set, which is expressed as a combination of time dimension and cross-sectionaldimension. These are critical features that guide the techniques to be used when performing analysis. In this study, a panel data analysis was carried out in which the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth in newly industrialized countries was based on Keynes and Wagner theories for the period 1988-2022, using the Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression (DSUR) technique for heterogeneous panels with cointegration relationships under cross-sectional dependence. There are many studies in the economic literature which try to understand the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth. The literature concentrates on Keynes and Wagner theories, which suggest that the direction of causality between these two variables are different. In newly industrialized countries, the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth and the perspective from which this relationship will be evaluated plays a critical role in understanding the economic development processes of the countries and in effective policy making. In this dissertation, the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth variables was examined specifically for newly industrialized countries. In the study, the DSUR technique, which allows obtaining effective estimators for heterogeneous panels under cross-section dependence, was used. In the literature, the DSUR technique is accepted to be more efficient than other techniques. Analyzes performed using the DSUR technique show that Wagner’s Law is valid in newly industrialized countries and that economic growth has an increasing effect on government expenditures in these economies.
Description
Keywords
Dinamik görünüşte ilişkisiz regresyon, Keynes hipotezi, Wagner kanunu, Yeni sanayileşen ülkeler, Panel veri analizi, Kamu harcamaları, Ekonomik büyüme, Dynamic seemingly unrelated regression, Keynes hypothesis, Wagner’s law, Newly industrializing countries, Panel data analysis, Government expenditures, Economic growth
Citation
Özkan, E. (2024). Yeni sanayileşen ülkelerde kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel dinamik görünüşte ilişkisiz regresyon. Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.