Geçiş ekonomilerinde makro ekonomik istikrar sorunları: Rusya örneği
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Date
2007
Authors
Çöküntü, Esra Güler
Journal Title
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Publisher
Uludağ Üniversitesi
Abstract
1989’da Berlin Duvarı’nın yıkılması ve 1991’de eski SSCB’nin dağılması, dünya ekonomisini köklü bir şekilde değiştirmiş ve iktisat biliminde çok büyük bir literatür ortaya çıkmasına neden olmuştur. Sözkonusu dönemde Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ile eski SSCB’de merkezi planlama sistemi ortadan kalkmış ve bu ülkelerde sosyalizmden piyasa ekonomisine geçiş başlamıştır. Hatta Çin ve Vietnem gibi halen daha sosyalist ya da komünist olarak düşünülen ülkelerde bile ekonomik koordinasyon mekanizması geniş kapsamda devlet müdahalesinden piyasa dağıtıma doğru şekil değiştirmiştir. Böylelikle, 1990’dan itibaren sosyalizmden piyasa ekonomisine doğru hareket eden ülkeler, özel bir sınıflandırmayla “geçiş ekonomileri” olarak adlandırılmışlardır. Sosyalizmden piyasa ekonomisine geçiş, çeşitli ekonomik faaliyet alanlarından oluşan son derece kapsamlı ve karmaşık bir süreçtir. Makroekonomik istikrar da bu sürecin önemli bir bileşenidir. Eski merkezi planlı ekonomilerin geçişi Polonya ile başlamıştır. Bu ülke, demokrasiye geçişte ve uluslararası yardım ve tavsiye almada ilk olmuştur. Polonya’da politika yapıcılar serbest piyasa ekonomisine yönelmiş ve hızlı bir şekilde hiperenflasyonu durdurmak, bütçe açıklarını onarmak ve yapısal reformları başlatmak için “şok terapi” (big-bang) stratejisine gereksinim duyulduğu fikrine ikna edilmişlerdir. Benzer strateji, aşamalı bir geçiş stratejisi benimseyen Macaristan, Romanya ve Slovenya hariç, başlangıç durumları ve ayırt edici özellikleri dikkate alınmaksızın diğer geçiş ekonomileri için de tasarlanmıştır. Şok terapinin benimsendiği ülkelerde istikrardan büyümeye doğru hareket için gerçekte Washington Konsensusuna dayalı politika önerileri benimsenmiştir. Bu paketler temelde gelişmekte olan ülkelerde tecrübe edilmiş metodları uygulamıştır. Dolayısıyla, deregülasyon ve ticaret liberalizasyonunun eşlik ettiği politikaların, durgunluğun üstesinden gelmek ve büyümeyi başlatmak için yeterli olacağı varsayılmıştır. Fakat istikrar ve büyüme bazı ülkelerde hedefine ulaşmışsa da özellikle eski SSCB ülkelerinde elde edilen sonuçlar beklenilenin çok altında kalmıştır. Bu çalışmada da temel amaç, sosyalizmden piyasa ekonomisine geçişin spesifik özelliklerine vurgu yaparak geçiş sürecinde yaşanan makro ekonomik istikrar sorunlarını ele almak ve Rusya özelinde bu sorunları ve ana akım iktisat çerçevesinde izlenen politikaların sonuçlarını incelemek
The fall of Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the former USSR in 1991, changed world economy fundementally and brought about emerging a huge literature in economics. In period at issue centrally planned system disappeared in Central and East Europe and the former USSR and in these countries transition began from socialism to market economy. Even in countries still considered socialist or communist, as Chine and Vietnam, the mechanism of economic coordination shifted to a great extent from state intervention to market allocation. Thus as of 1990, countries or economies which run from socialism to market economy have called as “transition economies”. Transition to a market economy is a lengthy and complex process comprised of various spheres of economic activities. Macroeconomic stabilisation is also one of the key component in this process. The transition of the former centrally planned economies began in the Poland. This country was the first in transition to democracy and also the first to benefit from international assistance and advice. In Poland, policy makers committed to the free market and their advisers rejoined in the feeling that a strategy of “shock therapy” (big-bang) was needed immediately to stop hyperinflation, to cure budget deficit and to initiate structural reforms. Alike strategy were later devised for the other countries in transition, whatever their initial situation and their distinctive features, except Hungary, Romania and Slovenia. In Hungary, Romania and Slovenia were adapted gradualist transition. Essentially in economies which adapted shock therapy were accepted policies based on Washington Consensus for movement from stabilisation to growth. This packages basically applied the methods already experimented within developing countries. Consequently, it was assumed that policies accompanied by deregulation and trade liberalization would be sufficient to conquer stagnation and launch economic growth. But though stabilisation and growth were achieved in some countries, they were below the initial hopes of experts and policy-makers, notably in the former USSR the outcomes were much worse than Central Europe. In this study basic purpose is that to handle macroeconomic stabilisation problems in transition process with emphasis transition from socialism to a market economy and personally to investigate these issues and to investigate outcomes of policies that relied on mainstream economics and were adapted in transition process in Russia.
The fall of Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the former USSR in 1991, changed world economy fundementally and brought about emerging a huge literature in economics. In period at issue centrally planned system disappeared in Central and East Europe and the former USSR and in these countries transition began from socialism to market economy. Even in countries still considered socialist or communist, as Chine and Vietnam, the mechanism of economic coordination shifted to a great extent from state intervention to market allocation. Thus as of 1990, countries or economies which run from socialism to market economy have called as “transition economies”. Transition to a market economy is a lengthy and complex process comprised of various spheres of economic activities. Macroeconomic stabilisation is also one of the key component in this process. The transition of the former centrally planned economies began in the Poland. This country was the first in transition to democracy and also the first to benefit from international assistance and advice. In Poland, policy makers committed to the free market and their advisers rejoined in the feeling that a strategy of “shock therapy” (big-bang) was needed immediately to stop hyperinflation, to cure budget deficit and to initiate structural reforms. Alike strategy were later devised for the other countries in transition, whatever their initial situation and their distinctive features, except Hungary, Romania and Slovenia. In Hungary, Romania and Slovenia were adapted gradualist transition. Essentially in economies which adapted shock therapy were accepted policies based on Washington Consensus for movement from stabilisation to growth. This packages basically applied the methods already experimented within developing countries. Consequently, it was assumed that policies accompanied by deregulation and trade liberalization would be sufficient to conquer stagnation and launch economic growth. But though stabilisation and growth were achieved in some countries, they were below the initial hopes of experts and policy-makers, notably in the former USSR the outcomes were much worse than Central Europe. In this study basic purpose is that to handle macroeconomic stabilisation problems in transition process with emphasis transition from socialism to a market economy and personally to investigate these issues and to investigate outcomes of policies that relied on mainstream economics and were adapted in transition process in Russia.
Description
Keywords
Geçiş ekonomisi, Post-komünist ekonomiler, Post-sosyalist ekonomiler, Geçiş ekonomilerinde makroekonomik istikrar, Geçiş sürecinde rus ekonomisi, Rusya’da makroekonomik istikrar, Transition economics, Post-communist economies, Post-socialist economies, Macroeconomic stabilisation In transition economies, Russian economy in transition process, Macroeconomic stabilisation in Russia
Citation
Çöküntü, E. G. (2007).Geçiş ekonomilerinde makro ekonomik istikrar sorunları: Rusya örneği. Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi. Uludağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.