Hot and cold seasons in texas housing markets

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to use statistical analyses to understand the trends on housing liquidity and pricing by accounting for macroeconomic factors that vary at national level and at metropolitan statistical area level for all metropolitan statistical areas in Texas. In addition, the authors test for seasonality in all the metropolitan statistical areas in Texas. Design/methodology/approach Using publicly available data from Zillow a listing website, the authors conduct an analysis of all housing markets at metropolitan statistical area level in Texas to understand the factors that drive the liquidity and pricing. The authors use two measures for liquidity, namely, time to sell the house and sales to list ratio. The authors also try to understand the decision to lower the price of the listed houses. In addition, the authors conduct a test for seasonality within the year in these housing markets. Findings The analyses conclude that there is a significant impact of listing prices, unemployment rates, 30-year mortgage rates, consumer sentiment and oil price changes on the liquidity of the housing markets and decisions of sellers to adjust the prices down. In addition, the authors provide evidence of the existence of seasonality in most metropolitan statistical areas in Texas both for pricing and volume of transactions. Originality/value This is the first study to look at housing liquidity and pricing trends for about 25 markets in Texas. In addition, the authors provide evidence of the importance of oil prices for the housing markets in Texas metropolitan statistical areas.