Number of storms in several russian seas: Trends and connection to large-scale atmospheric indices

Abstract

The main motivation of this research is to assess the trends of storm recurrence for the time period from 1979 up to 2020 and to analyze the connection between storminess and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices. This research contains information about the number of storms that occurred in seven Russian Seas, including the Black, Caspian, Barents, Kara, Bering Seas, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan/East Sea. The analysis of wave climate and storm activity is based on the results of wave modeling by WAVEWATCH III with input NCEP/CFSR wind and ice data. The long-term significant wave height (SWH) maximum is 15.5 m in the Sea of Okhotsk and 16.5 m in the Bering Sea. Significant linear basin-wide positive trends in the number of storms were found in the Kara, Caspian, Bering, Okhotsk Seas, and in the Sea of Japan. The weak positive correlation was found only between the number of storms and North Pacific index in the Bering Sea and between the number of storms and Arctic oscillation index in the Barents Sea. For other seas, it is no connections between number of storms and large-scale atmospheric indices, therefore, storm activity in the inner and semi-closed seas is regulated by the local wind and ice conditions, basin orography and bathymetry.