Box-Jenkins methodology of analysis and forecast prices of peach with prices in Turkey

Abstract

Due to global climate changes, the increasing population and some disruptions in production, the prices of products in domestic and foreign markets may vary over the years. Since the production of agricultural products is directly dependent on natural conditions, it is highly affected by these price fluctuations. In order to survive as a producer and to adapt to changing conditions, market conditions must be constantly monitored, always prepared and future situation analyzes must be made. Various methods and models have been developed to make such future time estimation analysis. One of the most widely used methods is the Box-Jenkins method. In the study; With the help of time series analysis modeling, it is aimed to analyze the export price changes of peach product by years and to predict the future price by modeling with the Box-Jenkins method, which is the most widely used modeling method. Research from the scope of the years 1967-2020 constitute rates peaches Turkey exports. ARIMA (3,1,3) model, one of the Box-Jenkins models, was used in the application. According to the results obtained; When the export prices expected to be made in 2021 after 2020 in our country are compared among themselves; Compared to 2020, export revenues expected to be achieved in 2021 are expected to increase by approximately %10. A steady increase movement is predicted for the next decade. At the end of the next decade, it is estimated that prices will increase by approximately %64 in 2030 compared to 2020.