The clustering of the population at building scale in Bursa city (Türkiye)

Abstract

Research on spatial statistical methods related to population estimation at the building scale and its implications for urban land use has attained little attention. The main target of this study is to propose a new method for population estimation at the building level with minimal data and methodology and a high accuracy rate. In addition to this, it discusses urban population from various perspectives by using spatial statistical methods (Local Moran’s I and Hot–Cold Spot) to examine the population calculated based on the number of residential units in buildings and the household size of the neighborhood along with urban land use types in the case of Bursa. The results showed the following: (1) The suggested method achieves a 76% accuracy rate in population estimation at the building level; (2) 64.6% of the city’s population (2,101,581 individuals) is located in areas classified as Discontinuous High-Density Urban Fabric (50–80%) and Continuous Urban Fabric (>80); (3) 13.2% of the population is located in hot spot areas of these two types, while 14.5% is in cold spot areas. This research provides decision-makers with a framework for addressing urban problems related to housing, transportation, health, and energy in addition to the methods it proposes.