Simulation study of the spread of Covid 19

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has negatively affected the lives of billions of people around the world. During this time, the method of forecasting modeling by simulation has become an important tool used to predict the course of the epidemic and take measures. In this study, the simulation method was used in the Comsol program. The simulation study conducted 8 different scenario analyses based on data in China. Primarily from the moment the outbreak began, the impact of the first time the measures were taken on the pandemic process was examined. Taking measures as soon as possible appeared to reduce the pandemic process. Simulation analysis of the effect of population numbers on the pandemic later found that control was easy in smaller groups and that the pandemic process could be terminated in 180 days in a 100000 populated location. In addition to different scenario analyses, the impact of parameters (transmission rate, taking measures and population number) that act on the pandemic process was examined with the Taguchi analysis. The transfer rate was found to be the most effective (35%) parameter in the outbreak process. According to the results of the analysis, the transmission rate of the optimum conditions is 0.2, the taking measures are taken is 10th day and population number is 100000. In this optimal condition, the pandemic process was terminated in 90 days. According to the simulation results, measures should be taken as soon as possible, dividing the population into small groups. Furthermore, the simulation result for model validation was compared to actual data, showing that the results varied closely together.