Projected changes in wave storm patterns near key ports and shipping routes in the Black Sea

Abstract

Wave storms are meteorological events that cause major damages in the marine environment and coastal areas. Considering the climate change phenomena and its repercussion on wind and wave climate, future projection of wave storms is necessary for sustainable offshore and coastal activities, and for the adaptation of port management to future climate change. In this study, the future change of wave storms is investigated off the major commercial ports in the Black Sea and along high density shipping routes. In order to project the future changes, wave simulations were performed using the SWAN spectral wave model forced with seven EURO-CORDEX regional climate models covering the Black Sea. The changes were projected with regards to the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the end of the current century. Projections at the selected stations in general showed a decrease in the number of wave storms and an increase in wave storm intensity. Regarding the wave storm directions, an increase in wave storm frequency is projected for the dominant wave storm direction, particularly in the eastern and southwestern regions. However, the projections from the different wave simulations differ for both the direction and magnitude. These differences highlight the potential uncertainty that could result from relying on a single model projection, underline the need to use multiple models to capture the entire range of possible outcomes.