The relationship between consumer confidence index and stock market: The case of Turkey

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between consumer confidence index and BIST-100 index in Turkey over the period between 2004:01 and 2019:03. Johansen co-integration test is firstly employed to test whether there is a long-term relationship between consumer confidence index and BIST-100 index, and the results show that there is no long-term relationship between them. Then, Standard Granger causality test is used to analyze the short-term relationship between the variables and according to the results, there is unidirectional causality running from BIST-100 index to consumer confidence index over the short-term period.