Afyonkarahisar ili için poisson ve gumbel dağılım modelleri ile deprem tehlike analizi
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Date
2019-12-12
Authors
Hiçyılmaz, Murat
Sezer, Soner
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi
Abstract
Bu çalışmada 1900-2019 yılları arasında Afyonkarahisar ve çevresinde meydana gelen depremlere ait veriler dikkate alınarak deprem tehlike analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü veri tabanından temin edilen, büyüklüğü Mw ≥ 4.0 olan 404 adet deprem verisi kullanılmıştır. Veriler Afyonkarahisar merkezli (38.75o Kuzey Enlemi ve 30.53o Doğu Boylamı) 130 km yarıçaplı dairesel bir alanı kapsamaktadır. Deprem tehlikesinin ortaya konulması amacıyla sismoloji literatüründe kabul gören Gutenberg-Richter Büyüklük-Frekans bağıntısı kullanılmıştır. Farklı büyüklükteki depremlere ait tekrarlanma periyotları ve her büyüklük değeri için deprem tehlikesi Poisson ve Gumbel Uç Değerler dağılım modelleri ile çözümlenmiştir. Farklı kabullere dayanan iki dağılım modelinden elde edilen sonuçlar karşılaştırılmıştır.
In this study, earthquake hazard analysis were carried out by considering the data of earthquakes occurred in Afyonkarahisar and its around between 1900-2019. For this purpose, 404 earthquakes data of magnitude Mw ≥ 4.0 were used which were taken from the database of Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. The data were obtained from a circular area with 130 km radius, which is centred in Afyonkarahisar (38.75⁰ North Latitude and 30.53⁰ East Longitude). In order to determine earthquake hazard, Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude-Frequency Relation that is accepted in seismology literature was used. Repetition periods of earthquakes of different magnitudes and earthquake hazard for each magnitude value were solved with Poisson and Gumbel Extreme Values distribution models. The results obtained from two distribution models based on different assumptions were compared.
In this study, earthquake hazard analysis were carried out by considering the data of earthquakes occurred in Afyonkarahisar and its around between 1900-2019. For this purpose, 404 earthquakes data of magnitude Mw ≥ 4.0 were used which were taken from the database of Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. The data were obtained from a circular area with 130 km radius, which is centred in Afyonkarahisar (38.75⁰ North Latitude and 30.53⁰ East Longitude). In order to determine earthquake hazard, Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude-Frequency Relation that is accepted in seismology literature was used. Repetition periods of earthquakes of different magnitudes and earthquake hazard for each magnitude value were solved with Poisson and Gumbel Extreme Values distribution models. The results obtained from two distribution models based on different assumptions were compared.
Description
Keywords
Afyonkarahisar, Magnitüd, Tehlike analizi, Gutenberg-Richter, Magnitude, Hazard analysis
Citation
Hiçyılmaz, M. ve Sezer, S. (2020). "Afyonkarahisar ili için poisson ve gumbel dağılım modelleri ile deprem tehlike analizi". Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1), 121-138.