Politik bütçe döngüleri ve Türkiye ekonomisi (1975-2000)
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Date
2002
Authors
Onur, Sara
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Abstract
Teorik literatürde, Politik Bütçe Dalgalanmaları/ Döngüleri Teorisi, temel olarak halkın kendisini yönetecek temsilcileri seçerken, devletin bütçesinde, toplam kamusal giderlerin arttığı ve/ veya toplam kamusal gelirlerin azaltılması biçiminde iki durumla karşılaşıldığını açıklamaktadır. Türkiye Ekonomisi için bu teorinin testinde, teorinin toplam kamusal gider ve/veya gelirlerden çok, iç ve dış borçların belirleyici bir niteliğe sahip olduğu gözlenmektedir. 1975- 00 yılları arasındaki, 26 yıl ve yaşanmış 6 seçim yılının getirdiği maliyeti, toplam kamusal açıkları, milletvekili genel seçimleri, GSMH, Konsolide Bütçe Açıkları, İç borçlanma ve Dış Borçlanma makro ekonomik değişkenleri veri olarak ele alınırken, seçimlerin toplam kamusal açıkları arttırması biçimindeki teorik beklentinin yanısıra, seçimlerde borçlanma yoluyla, yeni bir kaynak elde edildiği gözlenmektedir.
In literature, Politic Budget Cycles is basicly explained in two positions as rising of public spendings rise and falling of public revenues in the election terms in which public society votes for their representatives that will administrate them. According to testing of this theory on Turkish Economy, it can be said that domestic and foreign borrowings has more determinative role than public deficit, public spendings and public revenues. When macro economic variations, like costs of 26 years between 1975-2000 and 6 elections, Gross National Product, consolidated budget deficit, domestic and foreign debts are taken into consideration, it is observed that: borrowing during elections is also becoming a new source for finance, beside the expectation on rising of the total public spendings. From the both analysis (table and econometric) state creates himself the new finance device as domestic and/or foreign borrowing in addition of my theoric expectation's public spending and revenue.
In literature, Politic Budget Cycles is basicly explained in two positions as rising of public spendings rise and falling of public revenues in the election terms in which public society votes for their representatives that will administrate them. According to testing of this theory on Turkish Economy, it can be said that domestic and foreign borrowings has more determinative role than public deficit, public spendings and public revenues. When macro economic variations, like costs of 26 years between 1975-2000 and 6 elections, Gross National Product, consolidated budget deficit, domestic and foreign debts are taken into consideration, it is observed that: borrowing during elections is also becoming a new source for finance, beside the expectation on rising of the total public spendings. From the both analysis (table and econometric) state creates himself the new finance device as domestic and/or foreign borrowing in addition of my theoric expectation's public spending and revenue.
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Keywords
Toplam kamusal açıklar, Politic budget fluctations/ Cycles, Toplam kamusal giderler, Gross public deficits, Gross Public Spendings, Toplam kamusal gelirler, İç borçlar ve dış borçlar, Gross public revenues, Domain borrowings and foreign borrowings
Citation
Onur, S. (2002). " Politik bütçe döngüleri ve Türkiye ekonomisi (1975-2000)" Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(2), 85-126.