Granger causality relationship between agricultural gross national product and agricultural exports:The Turkey case

Abstract

This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between the agricultural gross national product and agricultural export in Turkey between the years 1998-2017. In the determination of the relationship, gross domestic product and the annual agricultural export data (1998-2017) were used. Initially, the unit root test was performed to identify long-term analysis. ADF method was used for the unit root test. In the long-term cointegration determination between the variables, Johansen cointegration analysis was performed. The presence of cointegration between the variables was determined in the cointegration test. The error correction model (VECM) was estimated based on the existence of a long-term relationship. Granger causality test was performed to determine the direction of the relationship between the variables. The causality analysis results reveal a bidirectional relationship between agricultural gross national product and agricultural exports in Turkey. The change in agricultural gross national product will also affect agricultural exports in an additional direction or the opposite. The growing importance of agriculture and supporting it in the economy will have a positive impact on the increase in national income.