Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: Current status and outlook

Simple item page
dc.contributor.buuauthorÇelenk, Sevcan
dc.contributor.departmentUludağ Üniversitesi/Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi/Biyoloji Bölümü.tr_TR
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0003-4925-8902tr_TR
dc.contributor.researcheridK-2981-2012tr_TR
dc.contributor.scopusid24170598000tr_TR
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-30T12:15:52Z
dc.date.available2023-03-30T12:15:52Z
dc.date.issued2017-08-31
dc.description"Çalışmada 29 yazar bulunmaktadır. Bu yazarlardan sadece Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi mensuplarının girişleri yapılmıştır”tr_TR
dc.description.abstractThe paper presents the first modelling experiment of the European-scale olive pollen dispersion, analyses the quality of the predictions, and outlines the research needs. A 6-model strong ensemble of Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) was run throughout the olive season of 2014, computing the olive pollen distribution. The simulations have been compared with observations in eight countries, which are members of the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN). Analysis was performed for individual models, the ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimised combination of the ensemble members obtained via fusion of the model predictions with observations. The models, generally reproducing the olive season of 2014, showed noticeable deviations from both observations and each other. In particular, the season was reported to start too early by 8 days, but for some models the error mounted to almost 2 weeks. For the end of the season, the disagreement between the models and the observations varied from a nearly perfect match up to 2 weeks too late. A series of sensitivity studies carried out to understand the origin of the disagreements revealed the crucial role of ambient temperature and consistency of its representation by the meteorological models and heat-sum-based phenological model. In particular, a simple correction to the heat-sum threshold eliminated the shift of the start of the season but its validity in other years remains to be checked. The short-term features of the concentration time series were reproduced better, suggesting that the precipitation events and cold/warm spells, as well as the large-scale transport, were represented rather well. Ensemble averaging led to more robust results. The best skill scores were obtained with data fusion, which used the previous days' observations to identify the optimal weighting coefficients of the individual model forecasts. Such combinations were tested for the forecasting period up to 4 days and shown to remain nearly optimal throughout the whole period.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union's Copernicus Programmeen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Latviaen_US
dc.identifier.citationSofiev, M. vd. (2017). Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: Current status and outlook''. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(20), 12341-12360.en_US
dc.identifier.endpage12360tr_TR
dc.identifier.issn1680-7316
dc.identifier.issn1680-7324
dc.identifier.issue20tr_TR
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85031788172tr_TR
dc.identifier.startpage12341tr_TR
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017
dc.identifier.urihttps://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/12341/2017/
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11452/32091
dc.identifier.volume17tr_TR
dc.identifier.wos000413112300002tr_TR
dc.indexed.scopusScopusen_US
dc.indexed.wosSCIEen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Gesellschaften_US
dc.relation.collaborationYurt dışıtr_TR
dc.relation.collaborationSanayitr_TR
dc.relation.journalAtmospheric Chemistry and Physicsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergitr_TR
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectEnvironmental sciences & ecologyen_US
dc.subjectMeteorology & atmospheric sciencesen_US
dc.subjectLand-surface parametersen_US
dc.subjectDry deposition schemeen_US
dc.subjectLong-range transporten_US
dc.subjectOlea-europaeaen_US
dc.subjectBirch pollenen_US
dc.subjectAdvection algorithmien_US
dc.subjectBerian peninsulaen_US
dc.subjectAllergenic pollenen_US
dc.subjectAirborne pollenen_US
dc.subjectGlobal databaseen_US
dc.subjectEuropeen_US
dc.subjectAtmospheric modelingen_US
dc.subjectDispersionen_US
dc.subjectEnsemble forecastingen_US
dc.subjectPollenen_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.subjectResearchen_US
dc.subject.scopusRagweed; Ambrosia Artemisiifolia; Pollenen_US
dc.subject.wosEnvironmental sciencesen_US
dc.subject.wosMeteorology & atmospheric sciencesen_US
dc.titleMulti-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: Current status and outlooken_US
dc.typeArticle
dc.wos.quartileQ1en_US

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Çelenk_vd_2017.pdf
Size:
15.62 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Web of Science
Scopus