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ÇAKAN, VELİ ANIL

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ÇAKAN

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VELİ ANIL

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    Forecasts for Turkey fresh fig production and dried fig export: Arima model approach
    (Namık Kemal Üniversitesi, 2020-01-01) Çakan, Veli Anıl; ÇAKAN, VELİ ANIL; Ziraat Fakültesi; Tarım Ekonomisi Bölümü; AAG-9627-2021
    Turkey is the biggest fig producer and exporter of the world with its nearly 10 million fig tree and nearly 300,000 of fig producing annually. Therefore it is important to make foresight about fresh fig producing and quantity of dried fig export for Turkey, which has ability to affect not only domestic market but also world market. In the study, in order to make the predictions of the export quantities of dried figs and production quantities of fresh figs for the years between 2019-2025 for Turkey; using the annual data of 1961-2018 for fresh fig production and 1980-2018 for dried fig export, obtained from the statistics of "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations" and "Turkish Statistical Institute", estimation was made with ARIMA model which is one of the time series analysis methods. Within the scope of the analysis; Dickey-Fuller unit root test was used to evaluate the stability of the variables, and the mean absolute percentage error and Theil's Inequality Coefficient was used to test the predictive power of the model. Considering many criteria, the most suitable model for both fresh fig production and dried fig export amount has been determined as ARIMA (2,1,2). According to the results of foresight; it is estimated that fig production will increase to 317.000 tons in 2025 with an increasing trend outside of 2020 and 2022, and the amount of dried figs will increase to 97.000 tons with an increase of 19% in 2025 compared to 2018. Under the assumption that 2.9 kg of fresh figs are required for the production of 1 kg of dried figs, considering the estimation made for both series in this research; it can be stated that 74.17% of the figs to be produced in 2019, 80.10% of the figs to be produced in 2022 and 86.05% of the figs to be produced in 2025 will be exported as dried figs. Considering that this rate was 46.08% in 1980, 52.03% in 2000 and 66.28% in 2010; it can be concluded that the figs to be produced in the estimated years will be exported as a dried fig at a much higher rate than the previous years.
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    Economic analysis and marketing margins of the peach market in Turkey
    (Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi, 2021-01-01) Vural, Hasan; Çakan, Veli Anıl; VURAL, HASAN; ÇAKAN, VELİ ANIL; Ziraat Fakültesi; Tarım Ekonomisi Bölümü; AFB-8936-2022; AAG-9627-2021
    In the study, it is aimed to analyze the market of peaches, which is becoming more and more important with its features such as creating raw materials for the food industry, contributing to human health, being an energy source and fertilizer. Data set is based on data between 2003-2017 obtained from TUIK and TOB statistics. The data includes; producer and consumer prices, production, consumption, export, import, and input prices. In order to analyze the Turkey peach market, models related to supply and demand functions were estimated, marketing margin and chain index calculations were made. Regression estimation results show that fertilizer price has a negative relationship with the production and labor price has a positive relationship with the production. It has been determined that the factor that has a positive effect on demand is population. It has been calculated that according to real prices, the average marketing margin is 0.60 TL kg(-1), share of the producer in consumer's price is 53.92%. The share of producer in consumer's price, which was average 60.92% between 2008 and 2011, decreased to 48.28% by 2017. This is an indication that the producer receives a lower share of the market earnings every year. For the benefit of both producers and consumers, it is important to encourage farmers to establish foundations such as cooperatives, that can reduce the marketing margin and increase the profit of the producer.