Browsing by Author "AMAROUCHE, KHALID"

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8

Creating an artificial neural network time series model for the prediction of daily solar radiation in oran
(Desalination Publ, 2022-04-01) Soukeur, El Hussein Iz El Islam; Chaabane, Djamal; Amarouche, Khalid; Bachari, Nour El Islam; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Khalid Amarouche; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0001-7983-4611; AFR-7886-2022
Water and clean energies are currently a major scientific and political concern. The use of numerical prediction is often recommended in these areas, for optimal exploitation of renewable energy resources, mainly for seawater desalination and other energy and food security activities. In this study, we present an application of artificial neural networks (ANN), developed for daily solar energy forecasting. The ANN model developed is based on the multi-layer perceptron, the most widely used ANN type in renewable energy and time series forecasting. The developed model has two main properties: I. The ANN training is based on long-term reanalysis data, allowing the model to be trained even in areas where no radiation measurements are available, as is the case for marine areas and in the new desalination plants. II. The model allows automatic selection of the optimal ANN model architecture based on the training data. A thirty-nine-year time series of reanalysis data between 1980 and 2018 was used for training and model implementation. Thus, the model accuracy was evaluated based on one-year data (2019). The obtained error analysis results show that the developed model has a good performance in line with previous studies. The developed ANN models are characterized by reasonable daily prediction accuracy, with a root mean square error of 3.248 MJ/(m2 d) for solar radiation prediction. This verifies the accuracy and ability of the model to predict solar radiation to ensure optimal management of solar energy farms.
Global extreme wave estimates and their sensitivity to the analysed data period and data sources
(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2023-07-13) Kamranzad, Bahareh; Khames, Ghollame-Ellah-Yacine; AKPINAR, ADEM; Amarouche, Khalid; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0002-9042-6851; AFR-7886-2022; AAC-6763-2019
In the absence of wave measuring buoys operating over extended periods, wave hindcast data or satellite observations are indispensable for estimating global extreme wave heights. However, the results may depend on the analysed wind wave sources and the period's length. The sensitivity of the estimated extreme significant wave heights (SWH) to the analysed data sources and periods is investigated in this study. Global extreme wave heights are estimated using ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data (ERA5), global wave hindcast developed based on Simulating WAves Nearshore forced by the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (SWAN-JRA55), satellite altimeter observations, and long-term wave buoy measurements. Both Annual Maximum fitting to the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (AM-GEV) and Peaks Over Threshold fitted to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (POT-GPD) models are used. The results show that the global extreme SWH estimates considerably depend on the analysed data sources. The relative differences observed between the analysed data sources are >20% in large parts of the world. Thus, the relative differences in extreme SWH are mainly lower by increasing the analysed data periods. However, they can reach 30% and are more critical using AM-GEV. Besides, by comparing the extreme values from reanalysis and hindcast wave data to those from long-term wave measurements, underestimations of up to 2 m are observed for a return period of 100 years in the North-West Atlantic and North-East Pacific.
Increasing trends in spectral peak energy and period in a semi-closed sea
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2023-02-13) Acar, Emine; Akpınar, Adem; AKPINAR, ADEM; Kankal, Murat; KANKAL, MURAT; Amarouche, Khalid; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0002-9042-6851; 0000-0003-0897-4742; 0000-0001-7983-4611; JTU-9268-2023; AAC-6763-2019; AAZ-6851-2020; AFR-7886-2022
This study aims to investigate long-term trends in the Black Sea's spectral wave peak energy and periods. Improved Visualization of the Innovative Trend Analysis and the Mann-Kendal methods was applied to the maximum and mean spectral peak energies and peak periods between 1979 and 2020. Long-term spectral data are obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis and two spectral wave models, SWAN and WWIII. The innovative trend analysis method has the particularity to examine trends in higher and lower value categories. Studies of long-term changes in spectral wave characteristics are rare, and trends in spectral peak parameters are evaluated in this study for the first time in the Black Sea. It was detected that both spectral peak energies and peak periods tend to increase predominantly over most of the time scales. Furthermore, while the change rates for peak en-ergies do not exceed 40% annually and seasonally, change rates exceeding 100% are observed on a monthly basis. Besides, the change rates of the peak periods vary in the +/- 5% band and usually do not exceed 15%. Moreover, despite a few differences, trend analysis results obtained using SWAN and WWIII models were close to the global ERA5 results. The results may provide insight into the design and durable development of coastal and marine structures as well as the evaluation of wave climate change based on spectral wave data.
Long-term characterisation of directional wave spectra in the black sea and the sea of azov
(Elsevier, 2023-11-07) Amarouche, Khalid; Akpınar, Adem; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; AKPINAR, ADEM; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü; 0000-0001-7983-4611; 0000-0002-9042-6851; AFR-7886-2022; AAC-6763-2019
Directional wave spectra describe complex sea-states in frequency and directional domains and provide more detailed information than the bulk wave parameters. Using hourly directional wave spectra hindcasted for 42 years (1979-2020), this study aims to assess long-term spectral wave climate in the Black and Azov Seas. Variance densities are averaged over the frequencies and directions for annual, seasonal, and monthly scales to determine spectral wave climate. Furthermore, The individual wave systems observed in each directional wave spectra are determined by referring to the independent spectral peak at each observation. The different sea state conditions, including the uni-modal and multi-modal wave systems, are classified and analysed; The energy, frequency, and direction of the three first prominent individual wave system peaks are deeply evaluated as a function of the sea state conditions. Occurrences as the function of spectral peak density and directions of the prominent individual wave system peaks are also computed and discussed. The results reveal that multi-modal spectra are more frequent, although the highest peak density values and lowest peak frequencies were observed within the wave spectra of uni-modal sea states. The spectral peak densities, frequencies, and directions depend on the number of wave systems in the wave spectrum and geographic location. The first peaks in the wave spectra are primarily derived from two dominant directions, and similar to 54 % of the peaks had a density greater than 2 m(2)/Hz. In contrast, second and third peaks in the wave spectra are typically derived from three or more dominant directions and rarely exceed 2 m(2)/Hz density.
New wind-wave climate records in the Western Mediterranean Sea
(Springer, 2021-11-03) Amarouche, Khalıd; Bingölbalı, Bilal; Akpınar, Adem; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; BİNGÖLBALİ, BİLAL; AKPINAR, ADEM; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü; 0000-0001-7983-4611; 0000-0002-9042-6851; AFR-7886-2022; AAB-4152-2020; AAC-6763-2019
This study presents a detailed analysis of changes in wind and wave climate in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMed), based on 41 years of accurate wind and wave hindcasts. The purpose of this research is to assess the magnitude of recent changes in wave climate and to locate the coastal areas most affected by these changes. Starting from the Theil-Sen slope estimator and the Mann Kendall test, trends in mean and Max significant wave heights (SWH) and wind speed (WS) are analysed simultaneously on seasonal and annual scales. Thus, the new wave records observed since 2010 have been located spatially and temporally using a simple spatial analysis method, while the increases in maximum wave heights over the last decade have been estimated and mapped. This work was motivated by evidence pointed out by several authors concerning the influence of global climate change on the local climate in the Mediterranean Sea and by the increase in the number and intensity of wave storm events over recent years. Several exceptional storms have recently been observed along the Mediterranean coasts, including storm Adrian in 2018 and storm Gloria in 2020, which resulted in enormous damage along the French and Spanish coasts. The results of the present study reflect a worrying situation in large part of the WMed coasts. Most of the WMed basin experiences a significant increasing trend in the annual Max of SWH and WS with evident inter-seasonal variability that underlines the importance of multi-scale analysis to assess wind and wave trends. Since 2013, about half of the WMed coastline has experienced records in wave climate, not recorded at least since 1979, and several areas have experienced three successive records. Several WMed coasts are experiencing a worrying evolution of the wave climate, which requires a serious mobilisation to prevent probable catastrophic wave storms and ensure sustainable and economic development.
Spatial calibration of wavewatch iii model against satellite observations using different input and dissipation parameterizations in the black sea
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2022-06-01) Akpınar, Adem; AKPINAR, ADEM; Soran, Mehmet Burak; Amarouche, Khalid; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0001-7983-4611; 0000-0002-9042-6851; AFR-7886-2022; AAC-6763-2019
The quality of the third generation wave model WAVEWATCH III, referred WW3, using the different source term packages is investigated in the context of wave growth and dissipation in a semi-closed sea, Black Sea. Accuracy in wave height hindcast is tested for five different source term parameterizations ST1, ST2, ST3, ST4, and ST6 in WW3 against the 2020-year multi-mission satellite observations over the entire sea. The aims are to determine the most appropriate formulation and optimum tuneable coefficients for wind waves modelling in the Black Sea. For this purpose, significant wave heights (Hm0) are produced using five different source term packages implemented in the WW3 model. A sensitivity test was applied to define the tuneable parameters that contributes to the accuracy of the models, and subsequently the coefficient values of each parameters was turned to calibrate the WW3 models. The tuneable parameter allowing to obtain the most accurate result in each package are defined for each source term package. Comparing between model results and satellite observations, we found that the default WW3 model with all source terms as well as the calibrated ST2 model underestimate Hm0 in the entire domain and mainly in the eastern Black Sea region and are not suitable physical source term for the Black Sea. In the Black sea, the calibrated ST1, ST3 and ST4 forced with ERA5 wind are recommended for long term wave climate simulation, and the calibrated ST6 is recommended for extreme wave simulation.
Wave power trends over the mediterranean sea based on innovative methods and 60-year ERA5 reanalysis
(Mdpi, 2023-05-22) Acar, Emine; Akpınar, Adem; Kankal, Murat; Amarouche, Khalid; Acar, Emine; AKPINAR, ADEM; KANKAL, MURAT; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0002-9042-6851; 0000-0003-0897-4742; 0000-0001-7983-4611; AAZ-6851-2020; AAC-6763-2019; ABG-2101-2020; JTU-9268-2023; AFR-7886-2022
The present study aims to evaluate long-term wave power (P-wave) trends over the Mediterranean Sea using innovative and classical trend analysis techniques, considering the annual and seasonal means. For this purpose, the data were selected for the ERA5 reanalysis with 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and 1 h temporal resolution during 60 years between 1962 and 2021. Spatial assessment of the annual and seasonal trends was first performed using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. To obtain more detailed information, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), improved visualization of innovative trend analysis (IV-ITA), and star graph methods were applied to annual, seasonal, and monthly mean Pwave at 12 stations selected. The results allow us to identify an increasing trend above the 10% change rate with the innovative method and above the 95% confidence level with the Mann-Kendall test in mean wave power in the Levantine basin and the Libyan Sea at all timescales. The use of various innovative methods offered similar results in certain respects and complemented each other.
Wave storm events in the western mediterranean sea over four decades
(Elsevier, 2022-01-14) Amarouche, Khalid; Akpınar, Adem; Semedo, Alvaro; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; AKPINAR, ADEM; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü; 0000-0001-7983-4611; AAC-6763-2019; AFR-7886-2022
The rising intensity and recurrence of wave storm events can seriously impact navigation and coastal and offshore structures in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, the present study is focused on wave storm events in the Western Mediterranean Sea, over the last four decades. The spatial decadal variations of wave storm events are shown, considering variations in the parameters that characterise wave storms, such as significant wave height (SWH), wave storm duration, and wave storm direction. Additionally, the decadal variation in wave storm intensities is evaluated through the storm power index (SPI) and the total storm wave energy (TSWE). The study is based on a wave hindcast, developed using a calibrated SWAN model. The wave storm events are obtained based on the SWH time series for 24 325 locations, distributed over an unstructured grid, covering the entire Western Mediterranean Sea. The decadal variation in the number of wave storm events, maximum and mean wave storm duration, SPI, and TSWE were observed in large parts of the West Mediterranean Sea during the last four decades. However, variations in mean SWH during these storms are low, and do not show a real implication in the decadal changes in the wave storm intensity (SPI and TSWE). Locations of significant increasing changes in SPI and TSWE show a dependence on changes in the wave storm duration. They may be related to variations in wave storm direction in some areas. Increases in wave storm duration are mainly responsible for increases in wave storm intensities over the last decade.