2017 Cilt 22 Sayı 2

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11452/12031

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    Medium-range low flow forecasts in the lobith, River Rhine
    (Uludağ Üniversitesi, 2017-07-30) Bouwma, Pieter; Demirel, Mehmet C.
    The aim of this study is to predict low flows 14 days in advance using a data-driven model. First, we apply correlation analysis to select appropriate temporal scales of pre-selected inputs that are precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, discharge, groundwater, snow height and lake levels. The forecasted rainfall has also been used as model input to forecast low flows in the River Rhine at Lobith. The correlation analysis analysis between low flows and basin indicators show stronger correlations for the Alpine sub-basins than the rainfed sub-basins. The Middle and Lower Rhine are downstream channel areas and they do not contribute to the discharge. Therefore, they are excluded from the entire analysis. The low flow predictions for the Alpine sub-basins and the Mosel are reasonable during the validation period, whereas the ANN for Lobith shows low performance for a different test period. The results for the training and the validation period are more encouraging than the test period for Lobith, i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency of 0.75 and 0.73 respectively.